'Keir Starmer shouldn't worry about being unpopular - it's a gamble that paid off for Thatcher'

Back in 1981, support for the Conservatives fell to 16%. The net approval rating of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher was -41. The same year, Sir Geoffrey Howe delivered the most unpopular Budget for 30 years.

Opinion polls showed only 24% of the public believed the Chancellor was doing a good job – and 73% called his measures unfair. Cabinet in-fighting led to two reshuffles just months apart. The summer was dominated by riots in Toxteth, Handsworth and Moss Side and – to cap a bad year for the Tories, the newly-formed SDP overturned their 19,000 majority to win the Crosby by-election.

By this measure you could argue that Keir Starmer hasn’t even tasted unpopularity. His personal approval rating may have tum­­bled but he remains more popular than any opposition politician. The last time I looked, Labour was also ahead in the polls. Starmer should wear his unpopularity as a badge of honour. It means he’s doing something right.

Of course people are angry they are having to pay more taxes. Of course they’re disappointed Labour was not exactly honest ahead of the election about its spending plans. And of course, no government wants to raise bus fares, take away pensioners’ winter fuel payments and release prisoners early. Given the terrible hand Labour inherited from the Tories, perhaps the real mystery is how they are still even this high in the polls.

Part of the problem is voters are less patient, and more demanding. If you want to lose power, the best way is to gain it. Across the world, incumbent governments are being ousted or taking a battering. Look at the United States, Germany or Japan.

At one time, incoming administrations had a honeymoon period. Now they’re pushed towards the exit before they’ve had time to wipe their feet on the welcome mat. The higher voters’ expectations, the more likely it is governments will fail. As a result, politicians seek the path of least resistance.

They tell voters they can have better public services and lower taxes (see the last Conservative manifesto), or promise new hospitals and rebuilt towns but fail to provide funds (look up Johnson, Boris, in the index). Or, they try to deflect attention from their own failings by blaming the elite, minorities or the civil service (see under Truss or Farage). In doing everything to avoid unpopularity, they end up doing nothing of consequence.

To Starmer’s credit, he’s shown a readiness to make difficult decisions. He’s prepared to upset voters and to weather the storm. He’s taking a gamble – wagering voters’ respect will be earned from showing leadership rather than dancing to the tune of populism.

But after all, he’s not nearly as unpopular as Thatcher was in 1981. And she went on to win two landslide victories, in 1983 and 1987.